20UTC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 17.2°S 43.2°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt (160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970mb
CATEGORY 1 US
INTENSIFYING.
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL, NEWLY FORMED EYE. A 101552Z WSAT 37GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-4.5 (65-77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW,
RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS AN 101815Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 75
KNOTS AND A 101544Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ENHANCED BY TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF
MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (29-
30C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CONTINUES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96. HOWEVER, THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PREDICTED AN IMMINENT SHARP TURN TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH HAS NOT YET BEEN REALIZED AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL
TRACKING EASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN AND DIFFICULTY IN
ACCURATELY TIMING THE RECURVE. EGRR AND AFUM RECURVE TO THE WEST
SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS, AND TURN THE TRACK NORTHWARD AT LATER TAUS
WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE REMAINING MODELS TRACK WESTWARD
TOWARDS MOZAMBIQUE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72 AS NORTH-
SOUTH SPREAD BETWEEN GFS AND NAVGEM TO THE NORTH, AND ECMWF AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TO THE SOUTH, INCREASES. THE NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AT
TAU 120 IS 123 NM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BECOME MORE GRADUAL AFTER TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW MOVES TO THE EAST. TC
18S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 17.2°S 43.2°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt (160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970mb
CATEGORY 1 US
INTENSIFYING.
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL, NEWLY FORMED EYE. A 101552Z WSAT 37GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-4.5 (65-77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW,
RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS AN 101815Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 75
KNOTS AND A 101544Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ENHANCED BY TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF
MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (29-
30C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CONTINUES TO BUILD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96. HOWEVER, THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PREDICTED AN IMMINENT SHARP TURN TO THE
SOUTH, WHICH HAS NOT YET BEEN REALIZED AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL
TRACKING EASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE
TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN AND DIFFICULTY IN
ACCURATELY TIMING THE RECURVE. EGRR AND AFUM RECURVE TO THE WEST
SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS, AND TURN THE TRACK NORTHWARD AT LATER TAUS
WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE REMAINING MODELS TRACK WESTWARD
TOWARDS MOZAMBIQUE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72 AS NORTH-
SOUTH SPREAD BETWEEN GFS AND NAVGEM TO THE NORTH, AND ECMWF AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE TO THE SOUTH, INCREASES. THE NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AT
TAU 120 IS 123 NM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.
INTENSIFICATION WILL BECOME MORE GRADUAL AFTER TAU 36 AS THE TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW MOVES TO THE EAST. TC
18S WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN
1945UTC
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