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19S(FARAJI): weakening rapidly, slow re-intensification forecast after 96hours, Invest 93S over the MOZ Channel, 12/09utc updates


19S(FARAJI) & INVEST 93S. ON THE RIGHT END OF THE IMAGERY 19S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ON THE LEFT END 93S IS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WHOSE CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION IS BRINGING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF THE COMOROS, OVER WESTERN MADAGASCAR AND OVER PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.


19S(FARAJI) & INVEST 93S. ON THE RIGHT END OF THE IMAGERY 19S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ON THE LEFT END 93S IS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WHOSE CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION IS BRINGING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF THE COMOROS, OVER WESTERN MADAGASCAR AND OVER PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
19S(FARAJI) & INVEST 93S. ON THE RIGHT END OF THE IMAGERY 19S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. ON THE LEFT END 93S IS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WHOSE CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION IS BRINGING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF THE COMOROS, OVER WESTERN MADAGASCAR AND OVER PARTS OF MOZAMBIQUE. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NEEDED.
2021 FEB 12 0910UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 15
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 12, 2021:
Location: 18.3°S 82.1°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt (160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WEAKENING
TC 19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 12/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 2605 KM  EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #93S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 12, 2021:
Location: 22.4°S 35.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
LOCATED AT 12/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 160 KM  NORTH OF MAXIXE/MOZAMBIQUE.
SUBTROPICAL
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: MEDIUM.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 12/09UTC.TC 19S(FARAJI) IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC FARAJI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH 36H AS IT TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT TO A DEEP LAYER STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH THAT WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER 96H AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND WIND SHEAR DECREASES, LEADING TO AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY 120H.
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 12/09UTC.TC 19S(FARAJI) IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TC FARAJI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS THROUGH 36H AS IT TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT TO A DEEP LAYER STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH THAT WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER 96H AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES AND WIND SHEAR DECREASES, LEADING TO AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY 120H.

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD BIAS. WHEN REMOVING THE NAVGEM TRACK FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THE MAXIMUM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS IS 650 KM AT 120H. THIS LOW SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE POLEWARD BIAS FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION.
19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD BIAS. WHEN REMOVING THE NAVGEM TRACK FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THE MAXIMUM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS IS 650 KM AT 120H. THIS LOW SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE POLEWARD BIAS FROM THE NAVGEM SOLUTION.


19S(FARAJI). 12/09UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
19S(FARAJI). 12/09UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.

19S(FARAJI). 12/0804UTC. NOAA-20. RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SATELLITE SIGNATURE.
19S(FARAJI). 12/0804UTC. NOAA-20. RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SATELLITE SIGNATURE.

12/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S AND FOR INVEST 93S.
12/06UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 19S AND FOR INVEST 93S.

12/00UTC.
12/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, February 12th 2021 à 14:20
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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