15UTC: cyclone IDAI(18S) category 2 US, 435km to Beira, set to make landfall close to Beira shortly after 24hours

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Microwave signature has been improving recently. I would not be surprised to observe a period of intensification within the next 12hours which is not reflected in the official warning from JTWC.
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 13, 2019:
Location: 19.5°S 39.0°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
CATEGORY 2 US
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 38.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING
RAIN BANDS, OTHERWISE, IT HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE AND A RAGGED 20NM CLOUD-FILLED PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 131046Z AMSR2 36GHZ
NEAR-SURFACE COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON ALL
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY
OFFSET BY DRY AIR FLOWING IN FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA. TC 18S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL REORIENT AND
DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN TC 18S TO ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS; AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WITH MOZAMBIQUE, ESPECIALLY
AFTER LANDFALL, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 THEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTERWARD. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 36, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN