1219UTC
No threat to any land.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 27 1425UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 60knots TC.
WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RAPIDLY DECREASED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 271219Z
METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS
HEDGED BELOW A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND THE 271219Z ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF ONLY 35 KNOTS. TS 02W HAS EXPERIENCED RAPID DECAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 02W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25 TO 40 KNOTS). HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TS 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AS SECOND
STR LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE REMAINING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TS 02W. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY,
REACHING 30 KNOTS BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED BY TAU
36. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 175 NM BY TAU 48.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS A RESULT OF UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 27 1425UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TS #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 60knots TC.
WARNING 34/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 34 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 27, 2019:
Location: 16.4°N 139.1°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt (140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 34 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 27, 2019:
Location: 16.4°N 139.1°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt (140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS RAPIDLY DECREASED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 271219Z
METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE SHOWING A DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS
HEDGED BELOW A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND THE 271219Z ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
OF ONLY 35 KNOTS. TS 02W HAS EXPERIENCED RAPID DECAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 02W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25 TO 40 KNOTS). HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TS 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AS SECOND
STR LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE REMAINING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TS 02W. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY,
REACHING 30 KNOTS BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED BY TAU
36. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 175 NM BY TAU 48.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. TS 02W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS A RESULT OF UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN
1218UTC
