WARNING 20/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 20.7°S 117.9°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt (195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 mb
CATEGORY 2 US WEAKENING
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING, COMPACT BALL
OF CENTRAL CONVECTION, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST ON
LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE ON THE
EMBEDDED CENTER IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 85 KTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION AND
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE. A 240559Z SATCON
ESTIMATE PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL AT 241052Z WAS 79 KTS.
241200Z OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AERO STATION READ 46 KTS
SUSTAINED WIND AND 994MB MSLP. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH
A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS SOUTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND HAS NOT YET REALIZED THE PREDICTED TURN TO THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM WILL NOW TRACK FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED,
LEADING TO FASTER WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VWS, THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. WHILE
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LEARMONTH, STRONGER WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT
FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS, SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD, AND TIMING
OF THE WESTWARD TURN, WITH A 210NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Location: 20.7°S 117.9°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt (195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 mb
CATEGORY 2 US WEAKENING
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING, COMPACT BALL
OF CENTRAL CONVECTION, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST ON
LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE ON THE
EMBEDDED CENTER IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 85 KTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION AND
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE. A 240559Z SATCON
ESTIMATE PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL AT 241052Z WAS 79 KTS.
241200Z OBSERVATIONS FROM ROEBOURNE AERO STATION READ 46 KTS
SUSTAINED WIND AND 994MB MSLP. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH
A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS SOUTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND HAS NOT YET REALIZED THE PREDICTED TURN TO THE WEST.
THE SYSTEM WILL NOW TRACK FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED,
LEADING TO FASTER WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VWS, THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. WHILE
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LEARMONTH, STRONGER WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT
FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS, SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD, AND TIMING
OF THE WESTWARD TURN, WITH A 210NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WARNING 20/JTWC
1230UTC
1332UTC
1052UTC
0912UTC
0911UTC
