15UTC: VERONICA(21S) category 2 US forecast to weaken until landfall in approx 36hours to the west of Port Hedland(WA)

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TC VERONICA(21S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 22, 2019:
Location: 18.1°S 116.8°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt (215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
CATEGORY 2US
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AS CONVECTIVE TOPS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WARMED AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
DIMINISHED, ALBEIT MAINTAINING TIGHT RAIN BANDS AND A 10NM PINHOLE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE EYE THAT STACKED WELL OVER
A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE PORT HEDLAND COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T5.0/90KTS TO T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF AND REFLECTS
THE WEAKENED EIR SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 21S IS
UNDER MODERATE 15KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET
BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT CAUSED BY TIGHT TROUGHING IS MINIMIZING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND CAUSING CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION. ON THE PLUS SIDE, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT 31C REMAIN HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE WILL NOW TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR
RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 30 NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND
AROUND TAU 36. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION, IN ADDITION TO
THE DIMINISHING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 THEN SPREAD OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS AFTERWARD. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 36, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS
41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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