Rapidly degrading satellite signature. No threat to any land.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 26 1520UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TY #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 105knots TC, CAT3 US.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TY 02W HAS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATED WITH AN EYE NO LONGER PRESENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL
261130Z METOP-A AMBIGUITY IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND HEDGED BELOW AN ADT CI OF T6.1 (117 KNOTS). TY
02W HAS BEGUN TO EXPERIENCE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS) ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE
CLOUD STRUCTURE. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS LIMITED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 02W IS DRIFTING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 02W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD WHILE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE STR TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS ALREADY INCREASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO CAUSING
TY 02W TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES
WILL ALSO DECREASE ALLOWING TY 02W TO DROP TO AN INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TY 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AS THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED APART. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TY 02W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODEL SPREAD IS NEARLY 270 NM BY TAU 72.
THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 26 1520UTC WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
TY #WUTIP #02W
This system is currently analysed as a 105knots TC, CAT3 US.
WARNING 30/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 30 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 26, 2019:
Location: 15.4°N 139.8°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt (195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt (240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 955 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 261500 Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 30 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 26, 2019:
Location: 15.4°N 139.8°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt (195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt (240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 955 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TY 02W HAS
RAPIDLY DETERIORATED WITH AN EYE NO LONGER PRESENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL
261130Z METOP-A AMBIGUITY IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND HEDGED BELOW AN ADT CI OF T6.1 (117 KNOTS). TY
02W HAS BEGUN TO EXPERIENCE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
KNOTS) ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE
CLOUD STRUCTURE. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS LIMITED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 02W IS DRIFTING GENERALLY
NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 02W WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD WHILE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE STR TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS ALREADY INCREASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO CAUSING
TY 02W TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES
WILL ALSO DECREASE ALLOWING TY 02W TO DROP TO AN INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TY 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AS THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED APART. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TY 02W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODEL SPREAD IS NEARLY 270 NM BY TAU 72.
THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
0818UTC
