15UTC: TREVOR(20P) is set to make landfall as at least a category 3 US north-east of BORROLOOLA shortly after 12hours.

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TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 22, 2019:
Location: 15.0°S 138.8°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt (175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
CATEGORY 2US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A
PINHOLE BUT PROMINENT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT STACKED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS TO T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, ADRM, AND
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA JUST AFTER TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO THE AUSTRALIAN
OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
GOC WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM UP TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
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