1430UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 7.4°N 137.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191
NM EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED RAIN
BANDS LOOSELY FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 160924Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T1.5 AND T1.0, RESPECTIVELY, AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING KOROR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT 29C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF MINDANAO NEAR DAVAO. THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT MAY PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 30 KTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION
WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72,
POSSIBLY SOONER, AFTER TD 03W MAKES LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SPREADS OUT TO OVER 200NM BY TAU 72 WITH NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT AND GFS
ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
Location: 7.4°N 137.6°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45km/h)
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 007//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191
NM EAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH FLARING CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED RAIN
BANDS LOOSELY FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A NOTCH
FEATURE IN THE 160924Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T1.5 AND T1.0, RESPECTIVELY, AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING KOROR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE AT 29C. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLAND OF MINDANAO NEAR DAVAO. THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT MAY PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 30 KTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND INTERACTION
WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72,
POSSIBLY SOONER, AFTER TD 03W MAKES LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SPREADS OUT TO OVER 200NM BY TAU 72 WITH NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT AND GFS
ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
WARNING 7/JTWC
WARNING 7/JTWC
1510UTC
12UTC
