WARNING 11/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 13.2°S 118.8°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 118.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070956Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE CENTER AND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 TO
3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM
SST (30-31C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU
48, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO
ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DEGRADE AFTER TAU 36 AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z.//
NNNN
Location: 13.2°S 118.8°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 118.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070956Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE CENTER AND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 TO
3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM
SST (30-31C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU
48, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO
ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DEGRADE AFTER TAU 36 AS
THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z.//
NNNN
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