https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 12.6°S 123.6°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 123.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 061253Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST WITH A 85NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 36. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 48 AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SPLITS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 380NM
AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH IS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE STR. THE BULK OF THE MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR WHILE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE BREAK, WHICH
ALL MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER TAU 72; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SLOW AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES OVER LEARMONTH
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN
Location: 12.6°S 123.6°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 123.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 061253Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 23S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST WITH A 85NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 36. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 48 AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SPLITS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 380NM
AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH IS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM INTO THE STR. THE BULK OF THE MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR WHILE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE BREAK, WHICH
ALL MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER TAU 72; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SLOW AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES OVER LEARMONTH
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN
1527UTC
1430UTC
