1437UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 12.9°S 143.3°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt (170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
CATEGORY 2 US
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 143.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS TC
20P TRACKS OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER
LAND. TC 20P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
TC 20P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 20P WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 20P WILL
EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES CELSIUS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TC 20P TO QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR SHIFTS EASTWARD AND REORIENTS AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 20P WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72, SHORTLY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT BUT HAS A SPREAD OF 140 NM BY TAU 72 AND A 305 NM
SPREAD BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF TRACK. DUE TO
THE CURRENT LAND INTERACTION AND THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z,
200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
Location: 12.9°S 143.3°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt (170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
CATEGORY 2 US
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 143.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS TC
20P TRACKS OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER
LAND. TC 20P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
TC 20P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 20P WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 20P WILL
EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES CELSIUS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TC 20P TO QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR SHIFTS EASTWARD AND REORIENTS AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 20P WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72, SHORTLY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT BUT HAS A SPREAD OF 140 NM BY TAU 72 AND A 305 NM
SPREAD BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF TRACK. DUE TO
THE CURRENT LAND INTERACTION AND THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z,
200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
WARNING 8/JTWC
LANDFALL AREA
WARNING 8/JTWC
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