15UTC: TC TREVOR(20P) intensifying next 36h over the Gulf of Carpentaria

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TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 21, 2019:
Location: 13.7°S 141.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 140.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AFTER IT EXITED FROM THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECAME MORE
SYMMETRIC BUT ALSO OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE 210952Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE THAT FIT INSIDE
THE LLC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES AND T4.0/65KTS FROM ADRM AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
STATE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA AROUND TAU
36. AFTER TAU 48, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE GOC WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF UP TO
80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
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