10UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 14.4°S 94.8°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151255Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 19S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH A SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU
120 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(IDAI) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN
Location: 14.4°S 94.8°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151255Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 19S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH A SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU
120 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(IDAI) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN
WARNING 7/JTWC
WARNING 7/JTWC
1256UTC
1238UTC
1230UTC
1106UTC
0850UTC
HWRF AT 06UTC: 59KT AT +120H
GFS AT 06UTC: 72KT AT +72H
