15UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) has been weakening rapidly in the middle of the South Indian Ocean

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TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 18, 2019:
Location: 17.6°S 88.1°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
WEAKENING
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 87.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1090 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 181008Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTLY
OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. HOWEVER, COLD DRY AIR IS ADVECTING INTO
THE SYSTEM. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 19S LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72,
POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED REMARKS SECTION WITH
CORRECT, CURRENT REMARKS.//
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