2019 FEB 17 1440UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
My remarks: moderate to strong wind shear and up-welling have taken their toll on the system. But 15P is still forecast to intensify gradually after 24H. High confidence in the forecast track over the next 48H.
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 60knots TC.
My remarks: moderate to strong wind shear and up-welling have taken their toll on the system. But 15P is still forecast to intensify gradually after 24H. High confidence in the forecast track over the next 48H.
TC #OMA #15P
This system is currently analysed as a 60knots TC.
WARNING 23/JTWC
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 23 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 17, 2019:
Location: 16.3°S 164.3°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN
Patrick Hoareau
Click on the TC graphic to read the Remarks for Warning 23 .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 17, 2019:
Location: 16.3°S 164.3°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE
FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A
LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC
IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28
CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN
TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS
MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS
26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Himawari 14UTC
