15UTC: TC KENNETH(24S) forecast to peak as a category 2 US in 48hours, potential direct threat to Grande Comore

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TC KENNETH(24S)
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 23, 2019:
Location: 10.5°S 48.8°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 703 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 231042Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS),
BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
AND A 231004Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
ALSO SUPPORTIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STEERING THE CYCLONE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 90 KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, IT
APPEARS THAT DIMINISHED OUTFLOW AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER MEMBERS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE BULK OF THE TRACKERS TURN TC 24S SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STR AND SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN BEFORE THEY LOSE
THE CIRCULATION. SOME MEMBERS DO TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION BACK
TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH SUGGESTS THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS HEDGED NORTH OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE IMPACT FROM NAVGEM WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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