15UTC: TC HALEH(17S): forecast to intensify next 96hours to a peak at Category 3 US, no threat to land

TC HALEH 17S

As of 12:00 UTC Mar 02, 2019:
Location: 12.6°S 74.1°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt (100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 74.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 021225Z 37GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TC 17S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15
KNOTS) AND HAS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29
AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE STEERING FEATURE
THROUGH TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 17S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, THE
STR WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AND GIVE WAY TO A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) WHICH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48 AND A SECOND STR
WHICH WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH. TC 17S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE WIND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT, INDICATING A BIFURCATION. THE AFUM AND EGRR TRACKERS
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWARD, SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NER, WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS
INDICATE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD
STORM MOTION THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
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