WARNING 3/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 11.8°S 126.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 126.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050955Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEING OBSCURED
BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ARE MARGINAL OVERALL THANKS TO HIGH (25-
30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU
48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE TC ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THERE IS A CHANCE VWS WILL REMAIN
STRONG, SUPPRESSING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT, BUT SPREAD REMAINS HIGH (ABOUT 468 NM BETWEEN ECMWF AND
NAVGEM AT TAU 120). ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENSION OF THE STR AXIS BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN
Location: 11.8°S 126.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 126.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050955Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEING OBSCURED
BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ARE MARGINAL OVERALL THANKS TO HIGH (25-
30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU
48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE TC ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THERE IS A CHANCE VWS WILL REMAIN
STRONG, SUPPRESSING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT, BUT SPREAD REMAINS HIGH (ABOUT 468 NM BETWEEN ECMWF AND
NAVGEM AT TAU 120). ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK
WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENSION OF THE STR AXIS BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN
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