15UTC: TC 18S forecast to be a powerful category 4 US in 3 days, possible direct threat to Beira/Mozambique

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TC 18S
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 09, 2019:
Location: 17.0°S 41.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM  
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091219Z SSMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND
PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET OVER
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
(29C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST
TO SLOW AND RECURVE SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36 AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLOW OR POSSIBLY QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 108. DESPITE THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN BUT WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12
DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
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