1430UTC
Peak intensity near 55knots forecast in 24H.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html 2019 FEB 26 1455UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
261500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 261206Z 36GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND AN ADT CI OF T2.9 (43 KNOTS). TC 16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TC 16P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS A
RESULT OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY
TAU 48, TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, TC 16P WILL COMPLETE ETT
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html 2019 FEB 26 1455UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #16P
This system is currently analysed as a 40knots TC.
WARNING 3/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 3 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 26, 2019:
Location: 16.9°S 176.2°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS: This system is currently analysed as a 40knots TC.
WARNING 3/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 3 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 26, 2019:
Location: 16.9°S 176.2°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
261500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 261206Z 36GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND AN ADT CI OF T2.9 (43 KNOTS). TC 16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TC 16P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS A
RESULT OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY
TAU 48, TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, TC 16P WILL COMPLETE ETT
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN
1206UTC
0845UTC
