1530UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 15.9°S 117.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt (140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 117.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS RAIN
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A PINHOLE FORMATIVE EYE, ALBEIT
CLOUD-FILLED, THAT HAS BECOME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR SIGNATURE.
TC 21S IS UNDER WEAK (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 100
NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE
DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 48 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD, WITH THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACKERS DRIVING THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z,
210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Location: 15.9°S 117.8°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt (140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 117.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS RAIN
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A PINHOLE FORMATIVE EYE, ALBEIT
CLOUD-FILLED, THAT HAS BECOME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR SIGNATURE.
TC 21S IS UNDER WEAK (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWARD AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL ABOUT 100
NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS THEN LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE
DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP
TO TAU 48 THEN SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD, WITH THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACKERS DRIVING THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z,
210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WARNING 4 /JTWC
WARNING 4/JTWC
1530UTC
1346UTC
1345UTC
HWRF AT 06UTC: 119KT AT +42H
GFS AT 06UTC: 116KT AT +72H
