15UTC: SOUTH INDIAN: TC SAVANNAH(19S) with flaring convection but still expected to fall below 35knots intensity in 36hours

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TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 19, 2019:
Location: 18.3°S 85.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
WEAKENING
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (TC) (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 997 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BUILDING CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 191236Z 37 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC AND BUILDING CONVECTION.
TC 19S IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20
TO 25 KNOTS) AND HAS WEAK EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TC 19S TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
INDICATING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z,
200900Z AND 201500Z.//
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