https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 18.3°S 62.9°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt (195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
CATEGORY 3 US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEEPENING EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A RAGGED BUT PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS), BETWEEN A
250953Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 97 KTS AND AN 251145Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (110 KTS). TC 22S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 22S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CAUSING THE
STR TO THE EAST TO RE-ORIENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM INDICATING
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 12 IN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SLOW MOTION IN A LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL. AFTER TAU
72, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT
TAU 96 AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Location: 18.3°S 62.9°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt (195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
CATEGORY 3 US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEEPENING EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A RAGGED BUT PERSISTENT 20 NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS), BETWEEN A
250953Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 97 KTS AND AN 251145Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (110 KTS). TC 22S IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 22S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN THIS STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CAUSING THE
STR TO THE EAST TO RE-ORIENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM INDICATING
FASTER TRACK SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 12 IN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SLOW MOTION IN A LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL. AFTER TAU
72, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT
TAU 96 AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
16UTC
