https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 17.1°S 61.7°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 mb
CATEGORY 2 US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION MOSTLY PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND OCCASIONALLY THE BANDING WRAPS AROUND
TO CREATE A FORMATIVE BUT EPHEMERAL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 241213Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS, BETWEEN
A RANGE OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.5
(77 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KTS), WHILE A 240924Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 88
KTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
TO 105 KTS AT 72 HOURS. THE PREDICTED PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN SCALED
BACK, AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS SLACKENED. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 96. TC 22S HAS MOVED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE NER WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING TC 22S TO
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS IN NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST SPREAD AS WELL AS ALONG-
TRACK SPEED, WITH A 295 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HEDGED CLOSED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
Location: 17.1°S 61.7°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 mb
CATEGORY 2 US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 61.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION MOSTLY PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND OCCASIONALLY THE BANDING WRAPS AROUND
TO CREATE A FORMATIVE BUT EPHEMERAL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 241213Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (28-29C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS, BETWEEN
A RANGE OF MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T4.5
(77 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KTS), WHILE A 240924Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 88
KTS. A COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING, REACHING AN
INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24, AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
TO 105 KTS AT 72 HOURS. THE PREDICTED PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN SCALED
BACK, AS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS SLACKENED. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING
VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT AS TC 22S MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
BY TAU 96. TC 22S HAS MOVED SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE NER WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, CAUSING TC 22S TO
ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS IN NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST SPREAD AS WELL AS ALONG-
TRACK SPEED, WITH A 295 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HEDGED CLOSED TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
14UTC: THE EYE IS LIKELY TO GET BETTER DEFINED NEXT 12H
13UTC
1213UTC: STRONGER SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
