15UTC: Cyclone POLA(16P) Category 1 US, tracking less than 100km to Ona Llau(Fiji), may intensify next 24hours

WARNING 7/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 7 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 27, 2019:
Location: 20.6°S 177.9°W
Maximum Winds: 75 kt (140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
 https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 270916Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO
25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48. SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL) WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION WITH TC 16P REACHING 90 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS AND WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TC 16P EASTWARD BY TAU 72 AND
ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
AGREEMENT BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
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