1314UTC
TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 06, 2019:
Location: 23.6°S 69.1°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt (140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt (170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 971 mb
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DECAYING,
ASYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION. A 061103Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC HALEH SHOULD
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST
VALUES DECREASE TO 20-22C AFTER TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 06, 2019:
Location: 23.6°S 69.1°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt (140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt (170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 971 mb
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 68.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH DECAYING,
ASYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION. A 061103Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC HALEH SHOULD
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST
VALUES DECREASE TO 20-22C AFTER TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 120NM AT TAU 72.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN
WARNING 18
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