1330UTC: South Pacific: INVEST 95P: development likely within the next 24hours

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 25 14UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
INVEST #95P
This system is currently analysed as a 30knots TD.
WTPS21 PGTW 251300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 175.5W TO 20.5S 175.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 175.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 174.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 175.5W, APPROXIMATELY
285 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250929Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL PATCHES OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER IT. A 250856Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHER WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO
WARNING STATUS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261300Z.//
NNNN
 

                WTPS21 PGTW 251300  MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//  SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P)//  RMKS/  1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN  160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 175.5W TO 20.5S 175.0W  WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY  ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT  IMAGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED  NEAR 13.6S 175.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07  KNOTS.  2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 13.0S 174.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 175.5W, APPROXIMATELY  285 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250929Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN  ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL PATCHES OF FLARING CONVECTION  LOCATED OVER IT. A 250856Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT  WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH  HIGHER WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY  LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH  (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES  (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL  TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO  WARNING STATUS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED  SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL  PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  HOURS IS HIGH.  3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY  261300Z.//  NNNN