12W(YAGI) reached Super Typhoon Intensity again after an ERC//TS 13W(LEEPI)//INVEST 95W to develop next 72 hours//0609utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, TYPHOON (TY) 12W IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN HAINAN ISLAND. HOWEVER, EIR IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A ROUND 21NM EYE WITH A NEAR COMPLETE EYEWALL AND SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH THE EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH EXTENSIVE SPIRAL BANDING OVER ALL QUADRANTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT HAIKOU (ZJHK), OVER NORTHERN HAINAN ISLAND, HAVE INCREASED QUICKLY TO 52 KNOTS SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) GUSTING TO 8O KNOTS, WITH SLP NEAR 970MB. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF THE AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 116 TO 132 KNOTS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER HAINAN ISLAND, RAPID WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. AFTER TAU 12, TY 12W WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN, WITH LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM EXPECTED NEAR TAU 24. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE USED IN THE JTWC CONSENSUS (CONW) REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 40NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF (EPS) AND GFS (GEFS) ENSEMBLES ALSO REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE RAPID WEAKENING PHASE EXPECTED AFTER TAU 12.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW AND INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARING AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST BUT IS DOING LITTLE TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM GRAPPLES WITH THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF HIGHER LATITUDES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 060013Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH A PEAK OF 35 KTS RECORDED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS DATA JUSTIFIED AN UPGRADE DUE TO THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A VERY BORDERLINE INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 060540Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EXPOSED LLCC AND SHALLOW SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: INCREASING VWS VALUES (29-42 KTS) AND PLUMMETING SSTS WILL CREATE AN INHOSPITABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL HAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. INTERACTION WITH A THERMAL RIBBON BEGINS AT TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM HURRIES TOWARD THE POLAR FRONT, WHICH WILL INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BY TAU 36, THE POLAR FRONT WILL BOMBARD TS 13W FROM THE NORTHWEST, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL BE CONSIDERED TO HAVE FULLY TRANSITIONED TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KTS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS THAT INCLUDE ITS PROXIMITY TO STRONG RIDGING TO THE EAST, LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE EAST SIDE, AND COMPOUNDED BY THE ACCELERATING FORWARD SPEEDS (APPROXIMATELY 17-23 KTS).

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE RELIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINTAINED A VERY SOLID HANDLE ON THE TRACK, DEPICTING A VERY NARROW GROUPING ALONG THE FORECAST WITH A TAU 24 CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 26 NM AND A TAU 36 CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONSENSUS (ICNW) BUMPS THE INTENSITY UP SLIGHTLY AT TAU 24, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REFLECT ANY INTENSITY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL, A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY IS PREDICTED, BUT WITH THE RESULTING INTENSITY STILL HOLDING CLOSE TO BETWEEN 25-35 KTS BY TAU 36. ACCOUNTING FOR A CONTINUED GRADIENT-INDUCED WIND FIELD ACCELERATION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS INTENSITY CONSTANT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ICNW GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR BOTH THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 166.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 1165 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY DISORGANIZED WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS A BROAD REGION. A 060224Z ATMS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE FEATURE WITH NO CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH BROAD EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE, WITH A MORE DEFINED, DISCRETE LLC FORMING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE, WITH A MORE DEFINED, DISCRETE LLC FORMING OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.