12W(HINNAMNOR) peaked at CAT 5: slow-mover next 96h//TD 13W: translating along the periphery of 12W//Invests 92E & 91L//3109utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 12W AND 13W.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING CLOUD LINES FORMING AROUND AN 8NM EYE. A 310453Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT 12W IS UNDERGOING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED INNER EYEWALL, A SIZEABLE MOAT AND SECONDARY EYEWALL ABOUT 20NM OUT FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ALL AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOWING T6.5 AND CIMSS SATCON SHOWING 132KTS. FURTHERMORE, BASED ON THE ONGOING ERC, WE WOULD EXPECT SOME LEVEL OF WEAKENING AS THIS PROCESS DEVELOPS.

AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT 12W IS UNDERGOING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED INNER EYEWALL, A SIZEABLE MOAT AND SECONDARY EYEWALL ABOUT 20NM OUT FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: STY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE DIMINISHING INFLUENCE OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THROUGH TAU 36, 12W WILL EVENTUALLY BE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ALL THE WHILE 13W WHICH IS ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP TO ITS SOUTH WILL INCREASES ITS INTERACTION WITH 12W FURTHER EXACERBATING ITS ERRATIC MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 36, 12W FINDS ITSELF IN A NEAR QUASI-STATIONARY ENVIRONMENT TRAPPED BETWEEN COMPETING RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST, AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDING IN TO THE SOUTH, THIS COUPLED WITH ONGOING ERC AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER WILL ALSO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY. NEAR TAU 48, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST CHINA, AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN RIDGE, MEANWHILE THE ENHANCED SOUTHWEST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BUILD A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THESE TWO FACTORS COALESCE AND FORCE 12W TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD. AS TRACK SPEEDS INCREASE THERE IS NOTABLE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH ITS FORMER PEAK INTENSITY.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM HITS ITS SOUTHERN MOST POINT. AFTER TAU 36 UKMET ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM TAKE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OVER TAIWAN WHILE THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND MAKES A TURN GENERALLY NORTHWARD. FOR THIS REASON THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WHILE THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT 12W IS ON A DOWNWARD INTENSITY TRAJECTORY, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72 AFTER WHICH ALL MEMBERS EXCEPT DECAY-SHIPS (NAVGEM) SHOW A REINTENSIFICATION TREND. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. A 310453Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THAT 13W IS UNDER RELENTLESS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM 12W WHICH IS 330NM NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ADT, SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF STY 12W. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING LIMITED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM 12W WHICH HAS FULLY EXPOSED THE LLCC, THERE IS A NOTABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 12. ONCE 13W ESCAPES THIS REPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND MOVES PARALLEL TO 12W THE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY, MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST LIMITED EASTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW FROM STY 12W AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR TD 13W. THIS NEW OUTFLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MILD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF APPROXIMATELY 40 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, 13W WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH STY 12W UNTIL FULLY DISSIPATING AS A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTER BY TAU 48 WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 40KTS. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SECONDARY OUTCOME TO THIS STORY. HWRF-P HAS SHOWN CONSISTENT MODEL OUTPUTS THAT INDICATE 13W MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN A VERY SMALL, DISTINCT CIRCULATION CENTER, THAT TAPS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO TYPHOON STRENGTH BEFORE TAU 48, THEN MAKES A COMPLETE ORBIT OF 12W BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 13W WILL TRANSLATE ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 12W BEFORE FULLY INTEGRATING AND THEREBY DISSIPATING. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 13W WILL INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL ACHIEVE A PEAK OF 40KTS MAYBE A BIT HIGHER BEFORE ITS INEVITABLE INTEGRATION WITH 12W. NOTWITHSTANDING THE UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE HWRF-P PREDICTION MENTIONED ABOVE, BINARY INTERACTIONS ARE NOTORIOUSLY CHALLENGING FOR MODELS TO HANDLE, AND THUS THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 30 2022 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week or by this weekend. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward or northwestward, likely remaining a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. South of Southern Mexico: An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico by late this week. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward near the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Brown

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to increase and become more concentrated overnight. However, recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation remains elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.