12W(HINNAMNOR) CAT4, ERC completed: intensifying again to likely STY status//98W: likely binary interaction with 12W//91L//30/09utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TY 12W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 98W.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY WRAPPING BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC 12NM EYE THAT IS NOW COMPLETELY CLOUD FREE. A 300412Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CORE WITH A BANDING FEATURE ALONG ITS EASTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MAJORITY OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOWING T6.5 AND BOTH CIMSS SATCON AND ADT SHOWING 122-127KTS.

TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. HAVING JUST COMPLETED AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), 12W HAS REINTENSIFIED BACK TO 125 KTS AND REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) AND STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT. 12W IS FORECAST TO REACH A POTENTIAL PEAK INTENSITY OF 135KTS OR POSSIBLY HIGHER BY TAU 36. BY THIS TIME, TWO MAIN FACTORS BEGIN TO ALTER THE TRAJECTORY OF 12W. A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND BREAK DOWN THE CURRENT STR TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT THE STR TO THE WEST WILL TAKE PRIMARY CONTROL AND 12W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE EQUATORWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY UNTIL ENDING UP IN A COMPETING STEERING SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH A STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEST, AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SECOND FACTOR BEING A POTENTIAL BINARY INTERACTION WITH 98W WHICH IS CONSOLIDATING 400NM TO THE SOUTH OF 12W, ALREADY WITHIN CAPTURE DISTANCE. AS THESE TWO FACTORS MANIFEST THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND NEAR TAU 48 AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW AND UPWELLING WILL BEING TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT INTENSITY. TAU 72 IS A SIGNIFICANT INFLECTION POINT AS MODELS AGREE 12W WILL EXECUTE A POLEWARD TURN AND TRACK NORTHWARD WITH A BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUAL NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THIS TURN NEAR TAU 72 THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF TIME SPENT QS OVER COOLER WATERS WILL HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, SHOWING A WESTWARD AND EVENTUAL SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. NEAR TAU 72 MODELS AGREE THAT 12W WILL EXECUTE A POLEWARD TURN THOUGH THE GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE EXACT TIMING AND FINAL HEADING. FOR THIS REASON THE INITIAL TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE LONG RANGE TRACK FORECAST PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO A SIZABLE SPREAD IN INTENSITY SOLUTIONS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INITIAL INTENSIFICATION PERIOD AFTER WHICH GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TAU 72 AFTER WHICH MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN REINTENSIFICATION AND DISSIPATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 134.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH EAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0410Z AMSR2 98GHZ PASS DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KTS) AND POLAR OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK NORTHWARDS AND NEAR TAU 24 START TO INTERACT WITH 12W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 875 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.