WARNING 19/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 20.4°S 117.7°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt (240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 943 mb
CATEGORY 3 US WEAKENING
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFORMING SYSTEM
WITH DEEP, BUT INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION, THAT IS
MAINTAINING A SMALL EYE. THE EYE REMAINS OVER WATER, AND THE NEARBY
TERRAIN IS FLAT AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH MANY RIVER BASINS, BUT
CONVECTION IS STILL STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
THAT REMAINS OVER WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, RADAR LOOP AND SMALL EYE
IN MSI SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION AND
STRUCTURAL DEFORMATION. MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.0 (90 KTS) TO T6.0 (115 KTS), THOUGH THE
FINAL T NUMBERS ARE DROPPING. A 240559Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 110 KTS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER, READ SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE OF 993MB. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THEN BEGIN A TURN TO THE WEST AND ACCELERATE AFTER
TAU 12 AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
WILL SKIRT THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, POSSIBLY EVEN
BRIEFLY MAKING LANDFALL, AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AS IT MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LEARMONTH, STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE
SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK SPEEDS, SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD, AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD
TURN, WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE ECMWF, UKMET,
AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z,
242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Location: 20.4°S 117.7°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt (240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 943 mb
CATEGORY 3 US WEAKENING
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFORMING SYSTEM
WITH DEEP, BUT INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION, THAT IS
MAINTAINING A SMALL EYE. THE EYE REMAINS OVER WATER, AND THE NEARBY
TERRAIN IS FLAT AND RELATIVELY MOIST WITH MANY RIVER BASINS, BUT
CONVECTION IS STILL STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
THAT REMAINS OVER WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON THE PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, RADAR LOOP AND SMALL EYE
IN MSI SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105
KTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE LAND INTERACTION AND
STRUCTURAL DEFORMATION. MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.0 (90 KTS) TO T6.0 (115 KTS), THOUGH THE
FINAL T NUMBERS ARE DROPPING. A 240559Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 110 KTS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER, READ SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KTS AND SURFACE
PRESSURE OF 993MB. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THEN BEGIN A TURN TO THE WEST AND ACCELERATE AFTER
TAU 12 AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM
WILL SKIRT THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, POSSIBLY EVEN
BRIEFLY MAKING LANDFALL, AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AS IT MOVES UNDER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES LEARMONTH, STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE
SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK SPEEDS, SOME NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD, AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD
TURN, WITH A 144NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE ECMWF, UKMET,
AND GALWEM SOLUTIONS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z,
242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WARNING 19/JTWC
0810UTC
0730UTC
0621UTC
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0531UTC
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