WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL
MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 270558Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 02W HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
IN RESPONSE TO THE VWS, BUT POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
VIGOROUS. THE CYCLONE LIES IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECONDARY STR TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. RECENT STORM MOTION INDICATES THAT AN ANTICIPATED
TURN TO THE WEST, FOLLOWING LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, MAY HAVE
COMMENCED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM, AND
FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY TAU 72. AS TY 02W WEAKENS, THE CIRCULATION WILL
FOLLOW LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH VARYING REPRESENTATIONS
OF THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN. ADDITIONALLY, TY 02W HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD THAN PREDICTED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE,
ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD TURN DOES APPEAR TO BE IMMINENT AT THIS POINT.
GIVEN NOTED TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL
MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 270558Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 02W HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
IN RESPONSE TO THE VWS, BUT POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
VIGOROUS. THE CYCLONE LIES IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECONDARY STR TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. RECENT STORM MOTION INDICATES THAT AN ANTICIPATED
TURN TO THE WEST, FOLLOWING LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, MAY HAVE
COMMENCED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM, AND
FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY TAU 72. AS TY 02W WEAKENS, THE CIRCULATION WILL
FOLLOW LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH VARYING REPRESENTATIONS
OF THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN. ADDITIONALLY, TY 02W HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD THAN PREDICTED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE,
ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD TURN DOES APPEAR TO BE IMMINENT AT THIS POINT.
GIVEN NOTED TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
0805UTC
0532UTC
