09UTC: Typhoon WUTIP(02W) ,Category 4 US, forecast to weaken rapidly after 12hours, no threat to land

      No threat to any land.   https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html   

WARNING 29/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for Warning 29 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 26, 2019:
Location: 15.2°N 139.9°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt (215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt (260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 260600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW,
AN ADT CI OF T6.1 (117 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 116 KNOTS FROM
060415Z. TY 02W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO
15 KNOTS) AND HAS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT LIMITED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR
27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 02W IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 6, TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN
TURN WESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE
WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STR TO THE EAST IS INDEED
BUILDING WESTWARD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND
CAUSE TY 02W TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 12, TY 02W
WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL
ALSO DECREASE ALLOWING TY 02W TO DROP TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TY 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TY 02W
WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODEL SPREAD IS
NEARLY 200 NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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