09UTC: TREVOR(20P) category 2 US, forecast to make landfall near BORROLOOLA in 18hours as a category 3 US

TO BE COMPLETED

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TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 22, 2019:
Location: 14.8°S 139.2°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt (160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 968 mb
CATEGORY 2US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 138.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED
LLC IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS TO
T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
(5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY
WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
BORROLOOLA AROUND TAU 18. AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD
DEEPER INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GOC WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM UP TO 100
KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
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