09UTC: TC WALLACE(23S) is forecast to briefly intensify within the next 36hours before the environment degrades once again

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TC WALLACE(23S)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 07, 2019:
Location: 12.9°S 119.7°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 119.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 648 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 070545Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
DEFINED LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE CENTER AND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-25 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. DUE TO THE SHEARED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN
ADDITION TO WARM SST (30-31C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD
AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 105NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS
BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO
DEGRADE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
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