07UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 13.8°S 94.8°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1375 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 150600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE ALONG WITH A 150259Z METOP-B AMBIGUITY IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 150259Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS 40 KNOTS AND BELOW A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 19S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS
MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH A SPREAD OF 610 NM BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU 120
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN
Location: 13.8°S 94.8°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1375 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 150600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE ALONG WITH A 150259Z METOP-B AMBIGUITY IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 150259Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS 40 KNOTS AND BELOW A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 19S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS
MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH A SPREAD OF 610 NM BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU 120
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN
WARNING 6/JTWC
0717UTC
0720UTC
0259UTC
0259UTC
HWRF AT 06UTC: 84KT AT +93H
