09UTC: TC KENNETH(24S) intensifying and heading for Grande Comore/ TC LORNA(25S): slowly intensifying over open waters

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC KENNETH(24S)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 24, 2019:
Location: 10.9°S 45.7°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 45.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, THE MSI LOOP SUGGESTS AN EYE MAY REVEAL ITSELF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI LOOP AND BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM AN EYE
FEATURE IN A 240313Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW/KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) BASED ON A 240347Z
CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 80 KTS. LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A BREAK IN THE STR AS IT DISSIPATES BY
TAU 72. THROUGH TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KTS BEFORE LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z,
242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
----------------------------------------------------------------
TC LORNA (25S)
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 24, 2019:
Location: 10.7°S 84.0°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 84.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ELONGATED AND UNDER A
THIN CIRRUS SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
BASED ON A 240313Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KTS. MODERATE (15-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TC 25S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BY TAU 72, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE TRACK TO
TURN POLEWARD AND EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 120. THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SLOW, STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN
FAIRLY RAPIDLY. AROUND TAU 72-96, TC 25S MAY BEGIN INTERACTING AND
MERGE WITH ANOTHER TC TO THE EAST (CURRENTLY 92S). ADDITIONALLY, BY
TAU 120, TC 25S SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE
TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK, WHICH LIES VERY NEAR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN