09UTC: TC IDAI(18S) intensifying rapidly west of Madagascar and could pose a major threat to Beira/Mozambique in 4 days

PUBLICATION UNDER COMPLETION

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 10, 2019:
Location: 17.4°S 42.6°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt (120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996mb
INTENSIFYING.
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 42.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 100320Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING AND A SMALL, WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES, BASED ON A
100557Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND RANGE FROM 50 TO 58 KNOTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET OVER
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST
(29C). TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CONTINUES TO BUILD
TO THE SOUTH, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD  
TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 120. DESPITE THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE
RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12
UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN