07UTC
Please find a short video down below with a few words from me.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 18.3°S 41.9°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 961mb
CATEGORY 2 US
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY.
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 41.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED BY A
WARMING CENTRAL CONVECTION; OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE NEAR-SURFACE 120248Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY
AIR FLOWING IN FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST, CENTERED OVER MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD
THEN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72, AS THE STR BUILDS. THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSITY INCREASE UP TO
AND SUSTAINED AT 100 KNOTS FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, A RAPID
DECAY WILL ENSUE AFTER TC IDAI MAKES LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, MOSTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 18.3°S 41.9°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 961mb
CATEGORY 2 US
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY.
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 41.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED AS EVIDENCED BY A
WARMING CENTRAL CONVECTION; OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL STRUCTURE REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE NEAR-SURFACE 120248Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY
AIR FLOWING IN FROM CONTINENTAL AFRICA. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST, CENTERED OVER MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD
THEN NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 72, AS THE STR BUILDS. THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSITY INCREASE UP TO
AND SUSTAINED AT 100 KNOTS FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, A RAPID
DECAY WILL ENSUE AFTER TC IDAI MAKES LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, MOSTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN
WARNING 13/JTWC
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
WARNING 13/JTWC
0655UTC
0656UTC
HWRF AT 00UTC: 121KT AT +54H
GFS AT 00UTC: 95KT AT +54H
