09UTC: TC IDAI(18S) category 3 US, intensifying, possible category 4 in 12hours, possible threat to Quelimane/Beira in 3 days

https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 11, 2019:
Location: 17.3°S 43.0°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt (230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958mb
CATEGORY 3 US
INTENSIFYING.
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 42.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 18S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (50 KNOTS) OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 50 KNOTS AT 10/06Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 100 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 15NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS INDICATED IN A 110436Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM
ALL AGENCIES. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 105 TO 115
KNOTS SUGGESTING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS IMMINENT. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29C) AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 36. TC 18S IS
LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, TRACK MOTION
HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEEDS BY TAU 36 AS THE NER BUILDS TO THE EAST AND THE STR
STRENGTHENS. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, AS THE STR
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH, TC IDAI WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER
MOZAMBIQUE NEAR TAU 96. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DEGRADE. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE
INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND. DESPITE THE COMPLEX,
EVOLVING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 100NM AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72 AS THE MODELS DIVERGE, THEREFORE
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
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