09UTC: TC HALEH(17S) category 3 US, intensifying rapidly with a forecast peak as a category 4 in 24hours

TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 04, 2019:
Location: 18.0°S 73.0°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt (195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt (240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 72.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WIDE EYE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS
BETWEEN PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102
KTS) AND A 040436Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 107 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS VERY FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FAIR EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 17S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS STR WILL
CONTINUE TO GUIDE TC 17S IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHED OUTFLOW WILL
CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL TAU 72, WHEN INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. BY TAU 120, TC 17S SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
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