09UTC: TC HALEH(17S) category 1 US, slow-moving and intensifying to a possible peak at Category 4 in 72hours

TC HALEH 17S
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 03, 2019:
Location: 14.6°S 73.6°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt (120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt (150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb

REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 73.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (HALEH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A BROAD EYE FEATURE FORMING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 030521Z 37GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 17S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 17S
IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 17S WILL
CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK TROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36,
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND ALLOW TC 17S TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD.
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW TC 17S TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOW ONLY
110 NM BY TAU 96 WITH A LARGER ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120 BUT A
SMALL ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
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