WARNING 2/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 12.0°S 127.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 126.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
DEPICTS ISOLATED, DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A NOTCH FEATURE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION IN MULTIPLE CHANNELS OF A 050539Z ATMS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH APRF AND
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE (29-30 CELSIUS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 72, THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY CAUSING WEAKENING TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120.
SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE CONSENSUS DEPICT A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE STR
AXIS, CAUSING A SIMILAR SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECASTS.
NAVGEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A POLEWARD TURN AROUND TAU 24 AND REMAINS
AN OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN
Location: 12.0°S 127.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 126.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207
NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
DEPICTS ISOLATED, DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS.
THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A NOTCH FEATURE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION IN MULTIPLE CHANNELS OF A 050539Z ATMS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH APRF AND
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE (29-30 CELSIUS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 72, THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY CAUSING WEAKENING TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120.
SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE CONSENSUS DEPICT A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE STR
AXIS, CAUSING A SIMILAR SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECASTS.
NAVGEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A POLEWARD TURN AROUND TAU 24 AND REMAINS
AN OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH SPREAD
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN
WARNING 2/JTWC
0837UTC
0827UTC
06UTC
