09UTC: South Pacific: Cyclone 16P forecast to track west of Nuku 'alofa shortly after 24hours

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 176.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (TC) (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 260602Z 37GHZ WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWING A
WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND NFFN. TC 16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. TC 16P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72,
TC 16P WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
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