https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 19.2°S 64.2°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt (205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt ( 250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 949 mb
CATEGORY 3 US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 64.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 10-NM EYE IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII ARE SUPPORTED BY A 260526Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5-T6.0 (102-115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING TC 22S IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BY TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE A POLEWARD TURN IN THE TRACK. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO MAINTAIN STRONG
INTENSITY, WITH THE PEAK ESTIMATED AT 115 KTS BY TAU 12, UNTIL TAU
48 WHEN INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. BY TAU 96, TC
22S SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SPREAD EXCEEDING 375 NM BY TAU
120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN
Location: 19.2°S 64.2°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt (205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt ( 250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 949 mb
CATEGORY 3 US INTENSIFYING
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 64.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 10-NM EYE IN
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII ARE SUPPORTED BY A 260526Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5-T6.0 (102-115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING TC 22S IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BY TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE A POLEWARD TURN IN THE TRACK. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC 22S TO MAINTAIN STRONG
INTENSITY, WITH THE PEAK ESTIMATED AT 115 KTS BY TAU 12, UNTIL TAU
48 WHEN INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. BY TAU 96, TC
22S SHOULD BEGIN TO UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SPREAD EXCEEDING 375 NM BY TAU
120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
(VERONICA) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN
1046UTC
10UTC
06UTC
2212UTC: LUNAR REFLECTION
