https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 25.3°S 69.6°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
WEAKENING SLOWLY
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 748 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS DISPLACED THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING
FROM A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN A 300404Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS)
BASED ON THE METOP-B PASS WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF 60 KT WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
HIGH (30-40 KT) VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU 48-72, AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL, COLD CORE LOW WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
TC 22S, CAUSING IT TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. UNTIL COMPLETING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, TC 22S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
ALTHOUGH EVERY MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS SHOWS A GENERALLY POLEWARD
TRACK, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
LARGELY DUE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM DEPICTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN
THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS MAINTAIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS, HEDGED AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF ECMWF AND NAVGEM, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN
Location: 25.3°S 69.6°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
WEAKENING SLOWLY
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 69.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 748 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS DISPLACED THE CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING
FROM A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN A 300404Z METOP-
B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS)
BASED ON THE METOP-B PASS WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF 60 KT WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
HIGH (30-40 KT) VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU 48-72, AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL, COLD CORE LOW WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
TC 22S, CAUSING IT TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. UNTIL COMPLETING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96, TC 22S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
ALTHOUGH EVERY MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS SHOWS A GENERALLY POLEWARD
TRACK, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
LARGELY DUE TO ECMWF AND NAVGEM DEPICTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN
THE NEAR TERM WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS MAINTAIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS, HEDGED AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF ECMWF AND NAVGEM, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN
0951UTC
06UTC
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