WARNING 26/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Location: 21.1°S 67.4°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt (215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A THICK EYEWALL MOSTLY SURROUNDING A RAGGED EYE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE, AS
WELL AS A 280147Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 114 KTS. TC 22S HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS).
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL COMPETE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THAT TROUGH TO
PRODUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS TC 22S TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST, AS ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE STR IN SPITE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND PUSHES TC
22S WEST IMMEDIATELY, WHILE GFS, GALWEM, NAVGEM, AND UKMET WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM. THE STR WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, PUSHING TC 22S TO
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND ACCELERATING IT. BY TAU 96, TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
AFTER TAU 48, UKMET AND GALWEM VEER DRAMATICALLY WESTWARD AND BECOME
THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS AND ALSO PREDICT A SLOWER ALONG-TRACK MOTION
THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE
CENTERED AROUND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH GFS SLIGHTLY RIGHT
OF TRACK WITH A FASTER ALONG-TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
//
NNNN
Location: 21.1°S 67.4°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt (215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A THICK EYEWALL MOSTLY SURROUNDING A RAGGED EYE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE, AS
WELL AS A 280147Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 114 KTS. TC 22S HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY WHILE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS).
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL COMPETE WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THAT TROUGH TO
PRODUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS TC 22S TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST, AS ECMWF
MAINTAINS THE STR IN SPITE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND PUSHES TC
22S WEST IMMEDIATELY, WHILE GFS, GALWEM, NAVGEM, AND UKMET WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM. THE STR WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, PUSHING TC 22S TO
A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND ACCELERATING IT. BY TAU 96, TC
22S IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CUT OFF FROM
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
AFTER TAU 48, UKMET AND GALWEM VEER DRAMATICALLY WESTWARD AND BECOME
THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS AND ALSO PREDICT A SLOWER ALONG-TRACK MOTION
THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE
CENTERED AROUND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH GFS SLIGHTLY RIGHT
OF TRACK WITH A FASTER ALONG-TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.
//
NNNN
09UTC
08UTC
0540UTC TERRA
0415UTC
