06UTC
NB: UNDER COMPLETION
Dangerous cyclone. Important potential threat to the Beira region. People should take this cyclone seriously and heed the warnings from the local authorities.
Location: 19.8°S 37.2°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt (240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
CATEGORY 3 US
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 36.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 140358Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 45NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE THE WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST VALUES (27-28C) HAVE
COOLED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
24 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Dangerous cyclone. Important potential threat to the Beira region. People should take this cyclone seriously and heed the warnings from the local authorities.
Location: 19.8°S 37.2°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt (240km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: mb
CATEGORY 3 US
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 36.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 140358Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION BUT CONTINUE TO DEPICT A 45NM ROUND EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW DESPITE THE WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. SST VALUES (27-28C) HAVE
COOLED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
THROUGH TAU 24 BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
24 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WITH
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WARNING 21/JTWC
WARNING 21/JTWC
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA IN 18H
0358UTC
HWRF AT 00UTC: 116KT AT +12H
GFS AT 00UTC: 91KT AT +24H
