0545UTC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
2019 FEB 28 0905UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #POLA #16P
This system is currently analysed as a 95knots TC, CAT2 US.
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 280352Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE AND A 280600Z
PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 16P HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36,
AFTER WHICH TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AND TURN EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH STORM INTENSITY MAY STILL INCREASE IN THE
NEAR-TERM, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36, TC 16P
WILL ENCOUNTER AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN EQUATORWARD COMPONENT TO TRACK MOTION AFTER TAU
36. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK
FORECASTS, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PRIMARY MODEL FORECAST
GROUPING. GIVEN NOTED MODEL FORECAST CHARACTERISTICS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36 AND LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN
2019 FEB 28 0905UTC SOUTH PACIFIC
TC #POLA #16P
This system is currently analysed as a 95knots TC, CAT2 US.
WARNING 10/JTWC
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 10 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:
Location: 23.4°S 178.0°W
Maximum Winds: 95 kt (175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
Click on the image to read the Remarks for the Warning 10 and view sat pics and charts .
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS.
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:
Location: 23.4°S 178.0°W
Maximum Winds: 95 kt (175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 280352Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE AND A 280600Z
PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 16P HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36,
AFTER WHICH TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AND TURN EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH STORM INTENSITY MAY STILL INCREASE IN THE
NEAR-TERM, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36, TC 16P
WILL ENCOUNTER AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN EQUATORWARD COMPONENT TO TRACK MOTION AFTER TAU
36. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK
FORECASTS, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PRIMARY MODEL FORECAST
GROUPING. GIVEN NOTED MODEL FORECAST CHARACTERISTICS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36 AND LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN
0830UTC
0337UTC
0353UTC
